Aiou Solved Assignments code 4684 Autumn & Spring 2024 asignments 1 and 2 Introduction to Population Studies (4684) code 4684 spring 2024. aiou tutors
AIOU Solved Assignments 1 & 2 Code 4684 Autumn & Spring 2024
Course: Population Studies (4684)
Semester: Autumn & Spring 2024
Level: M. Sc (Sociology)
ASSIGNMENT No. 1
Q. 1 What is demography? Discuss the nature and scope of demography and its importance?
Answer:
Demography is the statistical study of populations, especially human beings. As a very general science, it can analyze any kind of dynamic living population, i.e., one that changes over time or space (see population dynamics). Demography encompasses the study of the size, structure, and distribution of these populations, and spatial or temporal changes in them in response to birth, migration, ageing, and death. Based on the demographic research of the earth, earth’s population up to the year 2050 and 2300 can be estimated by demographers. Demographics are quantifiable characteristics of a given population.
Demographic analysis can cover whole societies, or groups defined by criteria such as education, nationality, religion and ethnicity. Educational institutions usually treat demography as a field of sociology, though there are a number of independent demography departments.
Formal demography limits its object of study to the measurement of population processes, while the broader field of social demography or population studies also analyzes the relationships between economic, social, cultural and biological processes influencing a population.
The reluctance of policy-makers to incorporate detailed demographic analyses in policy analyses often means that population composition is ignored in state and local policy evaluations. This article uses standard demographic projection, standardization and rate decomposition techniques to examine the implications of changing population composition for the property tax revenue base of Texas. The authors find that if current socioeconomic differentials persist into the future, projected compositional changes in the household population of Texas will significantly impact property tax revenues. Thus revenue projections based on aggregate growth and current average property value would seriously overestimate future property tax revenues in Texas because changes in the composition of the population lead to disproportionate growth in households likely to live in lower valued housing unite. The results indicate that the continuing focus of state and local policy-makers on changes in population size alone may be ill-advised and demonstrate the increasing importance of local- and state-level demographic analysis in a period of increasing Federal devolution of service provision.
AIOU Solved Assignments 1 Code 4684 Autumn & Spring 2024
Science of population
Populations can change through three processes: fertility, mortality, and migration. Fertility involves the number of children that women have and is to be contrasted with fecundity (a woman’s childbearing potential). Mortality is the study of the causes, consequences, and measurement of processes affecting death to members of the population. Demographers most commonly study mortality using the Life Table, a statistical device which provides information about the mortality conditions (most notably the life expectancy) in the population.
Migration refers to the movement of persons from a locality of origin to a destination place across some pre-defined, political boundary. Migration researchers do not designate movements ‘migrations’ unless they are somewhat permanent. Thus demographers do not consider tourists and travelers to be migrating. While demographers who study migration typically do so through census data on place of residence, indirect sources of data including tax forms and labor force surveys are also important.
Demography is today widely taught in many universities across the world, attracting students with initial training in social sciences, statistics or health studies. Being at the crossroads of several disciplines such as sociology, economics, epidemiology, geography, anthropology and history, demography offers tools to approach a large range of population issues by combining a more technical quantitative approach that represents the core of the discipline with many other methods borrowed from social or other sciences. Demographic research is conducted in universities, in research institutes as well as in statistical departments and in several international agencies. Population institutions are part of the Cicred (International Committee for Coordination of Demographic Research) network while most individual scientists engaged in demographic research are members of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, or a national association such as the Population Association of America in the United States, or affiliates of the Federation of Canadian Demographers in Canada.
Importance of Demography:
With the majority of developing countries facing population explosion, the study of population and its problems has become very important in every sphere of an economy. Aiou Solved Assignments code 4684
We discuss them below:
(1)ÿFor the Economy:
The study of demography is of immense importance to an economy. Population studies help us to know how far the growth rate of the economy is keeping pace with the growth rate of population. If population is increasing at a faster rate, the pace of development of the economy will be slow. The government can undertake appropriate measures to control the growth of population and to accelerate the development of the economy.
Rapid population growth reduces per capita income, lowers the standard of living, plunges the economy into mass unemployment and under employment, brings environmental damage and puts a burden on existing social infrastructure. Population studies highlight these problems of the economy to be solved by the government.
(2)ÿFor Society:
Population studies have much importance for the society. When population is increasing rapidly, the society is faced with innumerable problems. Shortages of basic services like water, electricity, transport and communications, public health, education, etc. arise.
Along with these, problems of migration and urbanisation are associated with the growing population which further lead to the law and order problem. Faced with such problems which are the concomitant result of population growth, the state and non-government social organisations can adopt appropriate measures to solve them.
(3)ÿFor Economic Planning:
Data relating to the present trend in population growth help the planners in formulating policies for the economic plan of the country. They are kept in view while fixing targets of agricultural and industrial products, of social and basic services like schools and other educational institutions, hospitals, houses, electricity, transport, etc.
Population data are also used by the planners to project future trends in fertility and to formulate policy measures to control the birth rate.
Based on population data, projections are made about the increase in labour force, and the number of people in the age-groups 1-15 years, 15-50 years and above in order to estimate the labour force available for productive employment. This, in turn, helps in making estimates regarding employment to be generated during the plan period.
(4)ÿFor Administrators:
Population studies are also useful for administrators who run the government. In under-developed countries, almost all social and economic problems are associated with the growth of population. The administrator has to tackle and find solutions to the problems arising from the growth of population. They are migration and urbanisation which lead to the coming up of shanty towns, pollution, drainage, water, electricity, transport, etc. in cities.
These require improvement of environmental sanitation, removal of stagnant and polluted water, slum clearance, better housing, efficient transport system, clean water supply, better sewerage facilities, control of communicable diseases, provision of medical and health services, especially in maternal and child welfare by opening health centres, opening of schools, etc.
(5) For Political System:
The knowledge of demography is of immense importance for a democratic political system. It is on the basis of the census figures pertaining to different areas that the demarcation of constituencies is done by the election commission of a country. The addition to the number of voters after each election helps to find out how many have migrated from other places and regions of the country.
Political parties are able to find out from the census data the number of male and female voters, their level of education, their age structure, their level of earning, etc. On these basis, political parties can raise issues and promise solutions in their election manifestos at the time of elections.
Further, it is on the basis of male and female voters in an area that the election commission establishes election booths for voters and appoints the election staff. Aiou Solved Assignments code 4684,
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AIOU Solved Assignments 2 Code 4684 Autumn & Spring 2024
Q. 2 What are different sources of demographic data? Discuss different techniques of population census and their merits and demerits?
Answer:
To derive conclusions from data, we need to know how the data were collected; that is, we need to know the method(s) of data collection.
Methods of Data Collection
For this tutorial, we will cover four methods of data collection.
- Census. A census is a study that obtains data from every member of aÿpopulation. In most studies, a census is not practical, because of the cost and/or time required.
- Sample survey. A sample survey is a study that obtains data from a subset of a population, in order to estimate population attributes.
- Experiment. An experiment is a controlled study in which the researcher attempts to understand cause-and-effect relationships. The study is “controlled” in the sense that the researcher controls (1) how subjects are assigned to groups and (2) which treatments each group receives. In the analysis phase, the researcher compares group scores on someÿdependent variable. Based on the analysis, the researcher draws a conclusion about whether the treatment (independent variable) had a causal effect on the dependent variable.
- Observational study. Like experiments, observational studies attempt to understand cause-and-effect relationships. However, unlike experiments, the researcher is not able to control (1) how subjects are assigned to groups and/or (2) which treatments each group receives.
Data Collection Methods: Pros and Cons
Each method of data collection has advantages and disadvantages. - Resources. When the population is large, a sample survey has a big resource advantage over a census. A well-designed sample survey can provide very precise estimates of population parameters – quicker, cheaper, and with less manpower than a census.
- Generalizability. Generalizability refers to the appropriateness of applying findings from a study to a larger population. Generalizability requires random selection. If participants in a study are randomly selected from a larger population, it is appropriate to generalize study results to the larger population; if not, it is not appropriate to generalize.ÿ
Observational studies do not feature random selection; so generalizing from the results of an observational study to a larger population can be a problem.
Causal inference. Cause-and-effect relationships can be teased out when subjects are randomly assigned to groups. Therefore, experiments, which allow the researcher to control assignment of subjects to treatment groups, are the best method for investigating causal relationships.
Test Your Understanding
Problem
Which of the following statements are true?
I. A sample survey is a type of experiment.ÿ
II. An observational study requires fewer resources than an experiment.ÿ
III. The best method for investigating causal relationships is an observational study.
(A) I onlyÿ
(B) II onlyÿ
(C) III onlyÿ
(D) All of the above.ÿ
(E) None of the above.
Solution
The correct answer is (E). Unlike an experiment, a sample survey does not require the researcher to assign treatments to survey respondents. Therefore, a sample survey is not necessarily an experiment. A sample survey could be an observational study, rather than an experiment. An observational study may or may not require fewer resources (time, money, manpower) than an experiment. The best method for investigating causal relationships is an experiment – not an observational study – because an experiment features randomized assignment of subjects to treatment groups.
How census data can be used for the purpose of development planning
In a number of countries, the population census plays a major role in the allocation of elected political seats in government. The number of elected officials for each governmental administrative unit is determined by the population size of a given locale. For some countries, the information is also used in the allocation of government resources. The size of the population determines, in part, the amount of money that is provided by government for development efforts.
For planners, census information is used in just about all planning decisions. The census of population provides information on the age and sex distribution, in addition to household composition and size, all of which are vital in determining the needs of different segments of the population. The census of housing allows planners to assess changes in the quality of housing and related facilities and plan for future housing needs. Table 4-1 provides possible planning-related uses for population and housing data.
Table 4-1: Possible Uses of Census Information
Census Information
Potential Uses
Total Population Size
When two or more census counts are compared for the same location, planners can determine if locales are increasing or decreasing in size.
Age and Sex
Used to help identify segments of the population that require different types of services.
Sex
Sex ratios can be calculated by 5-year age groups to crudely observe migration, especially among the working age cohorts.
Marital Status
Used to provide insights into family formation and housing needs.
Household Composition and Size
Used to help determine housing needs for related and unrelated households.
Educational Attainment and Literacy
Used to provide information on the educational skills of the work force. These measures also help planners select the best strategies to communicate with residents.
Location of Residence and Place of Prior Residence
Helps assess changes in rural and urban areas. Place of prior residence helps to identify communities that are experiencing in- or out-migration.
Occupation and Labor Force Participation
Helps to provide insights into the labor force of a given locale. The information can be used to develop economic development strategies.
Living Quarter Characteristics
Can help planners determine housing and community facility needs.
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AIOU Solved Assignments Code 4684 Autumn & Spring 2024
Q. 3 Describe and discuss the Maithusian theory of population. Also discuss that as per Malthus, how can we avoid the consequences of population growth.
Answer:
Malthus? Theory:
Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) was the key figure to analyse the population statistics. His formulation on population was a landmark in the history of population theories. He generalized the relationship between population factors and social change.
In his Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) Malthus argued that because of the strong attraction of the two sexes, the population could increase by multiples, doubling every twenty-five years. He contended that the population would eventually grow so large that food production would be insufficient.
Human capacity for reproduction exceeded the rate at which subsistence from the land can be increased. Malthus further wrote ?Population when unchecked increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.?
Malthus contended that the world?s population was growing more rapidly than the available food supply. He argued that the food supply increases in an arithmetic progression (1, 2, 3, 4, and so on), whereas the population expands by a geometric progression (1, 2, 4, 8, and so on).
In brief, Malthus theory states that:
Population is necessarily limited by the means of subsistence.
Population invariably increases where means of subsistence increased, unless prevented by some very powerful and obvious checks.
These checks, and the checks which repress the superior power of population and keep its effects on a level with the means of subsistence, are all resolvable into moral restraint, vice and misery.
Malthus based his above arguments on man?s two basic characteristics essential to the maintenance of life:
(i) The need for food, and
(ii) the passion between sexes.
It was the second which led people to marry at a relatively early age and would result in such a large number of births that the population would double itself in few years if unchecked by misery and vice.
Malthus referred to two classes of checks which kept population down:
Positive means:
He spoke of famine (hunger), disease or war, pestilence and vicious customs about women.
Negative means:
He explicitly demanded artificial means of birth control and suggested as an alternative that birth rate be decreased through preventive measures such as late marriage (postponing marriage until later age), moral restraint, and chastity (abstinence). He contended that without such restraints the world would face widespread hunger, poverty and misery.
The ?positive? and ?preventive? checks which occur in human population to prevent excessive growth relate to practices affecting mortality and fertility respectively. Malthus saw the tension between population and resources as a major cause of the misery of much of the humanity. He was not, however, in favour of contraceptive methods, since their use did not generate the same drive to work hard as would a postponement of marriage.
Theory of Demographic Transition:
Demographic transition is a term, first used by Warren S. Thompson (1929), and later on by Frank W. Notestein (1945), referring to a historical process of change which accounts the trends in births, deaths and population growth that occurred in today?s industrialized societies, especially European societies. This process of demographic change began for the most part in the later 18th century. Aiou Solved Assignments code 4684 ,
Demographic transition should not be regarded as a ?law of population growth?, but as a generalized description of the evolutionary process. In simple terms, it is a theory which attempts to specify general laws by which human populations change in size and structure during industrialization. It is frequently accepted as a useful tool in describing the demographic history of a country.
The theory postulates a particular pattern of demographic change from a high fertility and high mortality to a low fertility and low mortality when a society progresses from a largely rural agrarian and illiterate society to a dominant urban, industrial, literate and modern society.
It is typically viewed as a three-stage process:
(i) That the decline in immortality comes before the decline in fertility,
(ii) that the fertility eventually declines to match mortality, and
(iii) that socio-economic transformation of a society takes place simultaneously with its demographic transformation.
The demographic transition theory is characterized by conspicuous transition stages.
The transition from high birth and death rates to low rates can be divided into three stages (some scholars like Haggett, 1975 have divided into four or five stages):
i.ÿPre-transition stage:
High and fluctuating birth and death rates with little population growth.
ii.ÿStage I:
High birth rates and declining death rates with rapid population growth.
iii.ÿStage II:
Low birth and death rates with slow population growth.
iv.ÿStage III:
Birth and death rates both decline appreciably leading to zero population growth. The theory holds that pre-industrial societies were characterized by stable populations which had both a high death rate and birth rate. It postulates a little and slows population growth. The theory states that the high mortality rates characteristic of undeveloped areas will decline before fertility rates which are also high.
In the first stage of transition, death rates (especially the infant deaths) begin to fall as a result of advances in public health and sanitation as well as improvements in nutrition and food supply. Since the birth rate continues to remain high relative to the declining death rate, there is a rapid ?transitional? growth as we find in India today.
In the second stage, changes in social attitudes, the introduction of cheap forms of contraception and increases in life expectancy create social pressures for smaller families and for a reduction of fertility.
The diffusion of knowledge and cheap medical technology has brought many non-industrial societies into this stage of the demographic transition however, these societies have been unable to enter the third stage. The result has been very high rates of population growth in countries that are not experiencing corresponding economic growth.
In the last (third) stage of demographic transition birth and death rates decline appreciably which eventually becomes approximately equal, and in time it will result in zero population growth. Before this stage begins, there can be one more stage in which low birth and death rates lead to slow population growth.
The populations of advanced, urban industrial societies, which have entered the last stage, are now stable with low birth and death rates. In some cases (e.g., Eastern and Central Europe) birth rates have fallen so slow that the rate of natural increase was actually zero or negative. In this stage, the technical know-how is abundant, the deliberate controls on family planning are common and the literacy and education levels are also very high.
The growth pattern of human populations is thus held to be S-shaped, involving a transition from one type of demographic stability with high death rates to another type of plateau with low death and birth rates. Among the later demographers, Coale and Hoover further elaborated upon the role of development and modernization in the process of transition in demographic behaviour, maintained that a society characterized by peasant economy is marked with very high birth and death rates.
Death rates are high because of lack of adequate nutritive food, primitive sanitary conditions and absence of any preventive and curative measures of control over diseases. A high birth rate, on the other hand, is a functional response to high death rates, particularly among infants and children.
In the present-day world, as would be true of any point in time, different countries of the world are at different stages of the demographic transition. In the opinion of Glenn Trewartha (1969), this is largely due to the dual nature of man.
According to him, biologically, man is same everywhere and is engaged in the process of reproduction but culturally man differs from one part of the world to another. It is the cultural diversity of man that gives rise to varying fertility patterns in different areas resulting in different stages of demographic transition discussed above.
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AIOU Solved Assignments 1 & 2 Code 4684 Autumn & Spring 2024
Q. 4 What is theory of demographic transition? Discuss the causes behind slow demographic transition in Pakistan.
Answer:
Theory of Demographic Transition is a theory that throws light on changes in birth rate and death rate and consequently on the growth-rate of population. Along with the economic development, tendencies of birth-rate and death rate are different.
Because of it, growth rate of population is also different.
?Demographic transition refers to a population cycle that begins with a fall in the death rate, continues with a phase of rapid population growth and concludes with a decline in the birth rate?-E.G. Dolan.
According to this theory, economic development has the effect of bringing about a reduction in the death rate.
The relationship between birth and death rates changes with economic development and a country has to pass through different stages of population growth. C.P. Blacker divided population into five types as high, stationary, early expanding, low stationary and diminishing. According to the theory of demographic transition, population growth will have to pass through these different stages during the course of economic development.
The four stages of demographic transition mentioned by Max are explained as follows:
First Stage:
This stage has been called high population growth potential stage. It is characterised by high and fluctuating birth and death rates which will almost neutralize each other. People mostly live in rural areas and their main occupation is agriculture which is in the stage of backwardness. The tertiary sector consisting of transport, commerce banking and insurance is underdeveloped.
All these factors are responsible for low income and poverty of the masses. Social beliefs and customs play an important role in keeping birth rate high. Death rate is also high because of primitive sanitation and absence of medical facilities. People live in dirty and unhealthy surroundings.
As a result, they are disease ridden and the absence of proper medical care results in large deaths. The mortality rate is highest among the poor. Thus, high birth rates and death rates remain approximately equal over time so that a static equilibrium with zero population growth prevails.
Second Stage:
It is called the stage of Population Explosion. In this stage the death rate is decreasing while the birth rate remains constant at a high level. Agricultural and industrial productivity increases, means of transport and communication develops. There is great mobility of labour. Education expands. Income also increases. People get more and better quality of food products. Medical and health facilities are expanded.
During the stage economic development is speeded up due to individual and government efforts. Increased use of better technology, mechanization and urbanisation takes place. But there is no substantial change in the men, attitude of the people and hence birth rate stays high i.e., economic development has not yet started affecting the birth rate.
Due to the widening gap between the birth and death rates, population grows at an exceptionally high rate and that is why it has been called the population explosion stage. This is an ?Expanding? stage in population development where population grows at an increasing rate, as shown in figure, with the decline in death rate and no change in birth rate.
Third Stage:
It is also characterised as a population stage because the population continues to grow at a fast rate. In this stage, birth rate as compared to the death rate declines more rapidly. As a result, population grows at a diminishing rate. This stage witnesses a fall in the birth rate while the death rate stays constant because it has already declined to the lowest minimum. Birth rate declines due to the impact of economic development, changed social attitudes and increased facilities for family planning. Population continues to grow fast because death rate stops falling whereas birth rate though declining but remains higher than death rate.
Fourth Stage:
It is called the stage of stationary population. Birch rate and death rate are both at a low level and they are again near balance. Birth rate is approximately equal to death rate and there is little growth in population. It becomes more or less stationary at a low level.
These stages of demographic transition can be explained with the help of diagram 3 given below:
Stage I is characterised by high birth rate, death rate and low rate of population growth.
Stage II is characterised by high and stationary birth rate, rapidly declining death rate and very rapid increase in population.
Stage III is characterised by a falling birth rate, low and stationary death rate and rapidly rising population.
Stage IV is characterised by low birth rate and low death rate with stationary population at a low level.
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